Spot Silicon Metal Basically Stable, Wafer Enterprises Raise Quotations [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM Dec. 25: Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices were largely stable this week, with slight increases for individual grades. As of Dec. 25, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #421 silicon (used in silicone) was at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt, flat WoW; and #3303 silicon was at 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded SI contract closed at 8,835 yuan/mt on Dec. 25, up 190 yuan/mt WoW. Futures prices fluctuated upward this week. Willingness to sell and shipments from some silicon enterprises in the north increased WoW. However, as current prices still fell short of enterprise expectations, overall trading volume remained limited. Downstream users made just-in-time procurement, while overseas user inquiries and deals were relatively weak recently. Spot prices were largely stable and consolidated.

Demand side, polysilicon enterprise weekly production was basically stable. Domestic polysilicon output in December is expected at 113,500 mt, down only about 1,000 mt MoM, indicating basically stable consumption of silicon metal. Based on current production schedules, some polysilicon plants cut production, and January polysilicon output is expected around 100,000-110,000 mt. Silicone monomer plant weekly operating rates were basically stable, and are expected to remain largely stable next week. Alloy enterprises' weekly operating rates also remained largely stable. Overall, subsequent demand for silicon metal is expected to decrease, but within a limited range.

Supply side, silicon enterprise operating rates saw both increases and decreases recently, with decreases being more common. Silicon metal supply trended slightly downward. Silicon metal supply and demand are expected to decrease simultaneously. Given current operating rates, supply remains relatively loose. Coupled with selling pressure from silicon enterprises putting upward pressure on silicon metal prices. Cost support below was firm, with prices of raw materials like silicon coal remaining stable recently. Spot silicon metal prices were stagnant and stable today. Monitor subsequent changes in operating rates of northern silicon enterprises.

Polysilicon: This week, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.7-55 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 52.06 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 49-51 yuan/kg. Actual polysilicon transactions were temporarily stable. Polysilicon producers still had a mindset to increase quotes, but most had not yet formally unified external quotations. On the 25th, top-tier wafer enterprises significantly increased external quotes, but downstream purchases faced significant pressure, with most indicating they could not accept the high prices for now. Polysilicon market sentiment was somewhat boosted. However, there were very few actual transactions in the market, with most participants still adopting a wait-and-see approach and awaiting concrete deals to materialize.

Wafer:This week, overall wafer prices increased. The price of N-type 183 wafers was 1.23-1.25 yuan/piece, while the quoted price for 210R wafers was 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece, and for 210mm wafers, it was 1.5-1.55 yuan/piece. On the afternoon of the 25th, four top-tier enterprises uniformly raised their quoted prices to 1.4-1.5-1.7 yuan/piece. Downstream players have not yet accepted these prices, and no actual transactions have occurred. The primary reason for the rise in wafer prices this week was that battery manufacturers, after depleting their wafer inventory, took the initiative to improve their profit margins. Recently, spot silver prices repeatedly hit new highs, and rising auxiliary material costs prompted battery enterprises to raise their prices first, followed by wafers. However, the current wafer price level is putting significant pressure on downstream sectors. It is necessary to observe whether module manufacturers will accept the battery price increases to determine if the cost can be passed through to the wafer segment.

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